LMI Bulletin (Issue 457)
Produced by the LMI Team at Education Development Trust
LMI Bulletin (Issue 457)
Hermes, the delivery company has announced 10,500 jobs responding to the demand for online commerce over the last few months. These are mainly in driving but include over 1,000 in administration (ITV)
LinkedIn (owned by Microsoft) has announced 960 jobs are going as a result of the fall in recruitment activity (BBC)
M&S has said that 950 jobs are at risk as it continues its re-structuring which predates the COVID-19 outbreak (BBC)
In the region:
Great Annual Savings in Seaham is in the business of providing its customers with money savings on utilities and other overheads, It currently employs 300 people has announced it is to greatly expand with 300 more jobs this year (hopes)
The Stack at Seaburn is due to open ahead of the August Bank Holiday and hopes to create 100 jobs (BDaily)
The labour market
It is fair to say that the labour market is difficult to monitor. Employers are responding to changes in the rules on opening and some workers are returning to their jobs, there are estimated to be half a million people who are away from work and not being paid and by the end of June, there were 9.4 million employments on furlough (an employment is used to be able to include employees and business owners).
The standard measure for the labour market, the Labour Force Survey is not necessarily able to pick up on the rapid changes and the July release of data showed that in the last quarter (March to May 2020), the unemployment figure for the UK had actually fallen. ONS therefore led with another more telling figure using HMRC data, which was that the number of people on an employer's payroll - effectively employees - had fallen by 650,000 between March and June 2020.
The other fact, which is unsurprising, is that using the estimate of the number of people who have started in a new job or become self-employed, there have just been a lot less people starting work. Looking at the figures for 2019, the weekly starting work estimate varied between 479,000 and 903,000. Crudely speaking, on average about 660,000 people a week started work. In the last two months, the average has been nearer 400,000. Even during the lockdown, people are still moving into work or self-employment.
The other factor contributing to unemployment not increasing, is that to be classed as unemployed, you need to be out of work and looking for work. The suggestion is that some people are not active in the labour market i.e. not looking for work. Looking at the vacancy count could explain this. For April to June 2020, there were an estimated 333,000 vacancies in the UK, the lowest level since the Vacancy Survey began in April to June 2001 (ONS Vacancy Survey). This is 497,000 (59.9%) fewer than a year earlier. The better news is that the June vacancy count was higher than that for May. While nowhere near their pre pandemic levels, there were higher vacancy figures in June (than May) for construction, retail, logistics (transport and storage), and hospitality.
Supporting young people for the future
In response to the Chancellor's Plan for Jobs, Education Development Trust's IAG Commercial Manager Mark de Backer has written a piece in FE News outlining what he thinks are the key steps that should be taken to help young people into meaningful employment.
We always like the ONS visualisations and this is one using the latest data on the age of the population. You can find out for example that the median age in Middlesbrough is 36.3, while in Northumberland it is 48.4. All of which makes me feel terribly old. This is where you can find the link to the tool
- ^ https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2020/07/16/a-covid-19-conundrum-why-are-nearly-h...
- ^ https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-job-retention-scheme-statistics-july-2020/coronavirus-job-retention-scheme-statistics-july-2020#sec-background
- ^ https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/articles/singlemonthlabourforcesurveyestimates/latest
- ^ https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/datasets/x06singlemonthvacanciesestimatesnotdesignatedasnationalstatistics